Really, 20% job growth rate in HR?

I listened to Josh Bersin’s keynote at their 2011 Impact Conference – The Business of Talent on Wednesday April 27. Kudos to Bersin and Associates for streaming this event and sharing with those that couldn’t attend. Josh talked about the Borderless Workplace and its components – Recruiting, Management, L&D, Leadership and HR all framed with this borderless concept. “Borderless-ness” is about breaking barriers and boundaries across age, role, gender, culture and nationality. “Borderless-ness” will require different skill sets; leader competencies; embracing social media for L&D, sourcing of talent, cross-silo collaboration. OK, I buy all that. What struck me in the keynote was Bersin’s statement that job growth through 2018 will be 10% and for HR it will be double that – 20%! Really? This strikes me as too high. Maybe organizations have realized that they cut way too deep in HR and need to restore internal capability? Outsourced/offshore recruiting didn’t workout? Tech investments in performance management systems actually need champions, owners and coaches to realize value?  Those with organizational roles in my network (CLO, learning leaders) see the lean years continuing with focus on controlling cost. No one is predicting significant L&D job growth. So, we’ll see. Standard Dennis Miller caveat applies, “hey, that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.”

UPDATE May 4, 2011

You can view the Bersin keynote here (for a few weeks). The referenced statistics can be found as a PDF on the US Department of Labor site here.  The prediction is is on page 101, matrix code 10-1070 through 13-1079.  So, we’ll see.

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